Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Valladolid in this match.
-0.07) 
0.09) 
