Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
-1.22) 
0.35) 
