With Atalanta's ability to capitalise on home advantage still questionable, and their visitors having gone so long without away success, it may not be a fluent affair in front of some disgruntled Bergamaschi fans.
However, the hosts' need for the points is far greater, and they can edge out Empoli due to the options available to Gasperini from the bench if the outcome remains undecided in the closing stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 68.41%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 14.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 3-1 (7.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.15%), while for a Empoli win it was 1-2 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
1.42) 
-0.54) 
