Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 54.44%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Parma had a probability of 21.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.