D'Aversa is running out of time to turn Lecce's fortunes around, and another one or two bad results could see them drop into the bottom three, and this fixture looks difficult on paper.
Fiorentina have been far from convincing in all competitions so far during 2024, but facing a side in much worse form should provide them with a good chance of winning, especially given the return of Gonzalez.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.82%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-0 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
