The distraction of a midweek Coppa Italia defeat will have done struggling Sassuolo no favours ahead of a tough test against in-form Fiorentina. As the Viola have had more than a week to prepare for their first fixture of 2024, expect them to edge out a home side that simply cannot stop conceding goals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.15) 
