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Serie A | Gameweek 27
Mar 19, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
LL

Fiorentina
1 - 0
Lecce

Gallo (27' og.)
Julio (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Blin (25'), Maleh (72'), Umtiti (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sivasspor 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lecce 0-2 Torino
Sunday, March 12 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: Fiorentina 2-1 Lecce

Recent trends suggest there should be only one winner on Sunday, as Fiorentina are flying high and Lecce are at a low. While it may not be quite so straightforward given the Viola's European exertions, their forwards are full of confidence now - a total contrast with those of the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 67.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawLecce
67.19% (0.67899999999999 0.68) 19.55% (-0.337 -0.34) 13.25% (-0.348 -0.35)
Both teams to score 48.3% (0.135 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.18% (0.688 0.69)44.81% (-0.695 -0.7)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.82% (0.66 0.66)67.17% (-0.667 -0.67)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.62% (0.396 0.4)12.38% (-0.402 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.76% (0.828 0.83)38.24% (-0.834 -0.83)
Lecce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.12% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)44.87% (0.092999999999996 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.17% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)80.83% (0.073999999999998 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 67.19%
    Lecce 13.25%
    Draw 19.55%
FiorentinaDrawLecce
2-0 @ 12.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 11.6% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-1 @ 9.71% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.44% (0.137 0.14)
3-1 @ 6.77% (0.092 0.09)
4-0 @ 4.41% (0.137 0.14)
4-1 @ 3.53% (0.102 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.03 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.84% (0.084 0.08)
5-1 @ 1.48% (0.064 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 67.19%
1-1 @ 9.3% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 5.55% (-0.168 -0.17)
2-2 @ 3.89% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 19.55%
0-1 @ 4.45% (-0.146 -0.15)
1-2 @ 3.73% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-2 @ 1.78% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.04% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 1.26%
Total : 13.25%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sivasspor 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Cremonese 0-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, March 12 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Sivasspor
Thursday, March 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Fiorentina 2-1 AC Milan
Saturday, March 4 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina
Monday, February 27 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 3-2 Braga
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lecce 0-2 Torino
Sunday, March 12 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 2-0 Lecce
Sunday, March 5 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lecce 0-1 Sassuolo
Saturday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Atalanta 1-2 Lecce
Sunday, February 19 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Lecce 1-1 Roma
Saturday, February 11 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Cremonese 0-2 Lecce
Saturday, February 4 at 2pm in Serie A


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