SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 67.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | Lecce |
67.19% ( 0.68) | 19.55% ( -0.34) | 13.25% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 48.3% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.18% ( 0.69) | 44.81% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.82% ( 0.66) | 67.17% ( -0.67) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.62% ( 0.4) | 12.38% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.76% ( 0.83) | 38.24% ( -0.83) |
| Lecce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.12% ( -0.1) | 44.87% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.17% ( -0.08) | 80.83% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fiorentina | Draw | Lecce |
| 2-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.17)2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.16% Total : 67.19% | 1-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.81% Total : 19.55% | 0-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.26% Total : 13.25% |
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