We said: Napoli 0-1 Inter Milan
Recent Serie A encounters between the top sides have tended to be tight affairs, as caution starts to kick in on the approach to the most crucial phase of the season.
With both teams capable of shutting up shop in defence, a low-scoring affair is on the cards - in contrast to the five goals produced in the entertaining reverse fixture - and Inter could just edge it due to their greater array of options from the bench when legs begin to tire.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Napoli win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
