Despite there not being a great deal separating the two sides, Spezia have been impressive at home this season, undefeated at Stadio Alberto Picco so far.
As such, we expect them to do just enough to get the three points in this one, particularly given the fact that Cremonese are yet to win a game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Cremonese had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Cremonese win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
0.88) 
-0.09) 
