While Juventus are clearly vulnerable, Torino perhaps lack the tools to take full advantage and the weight of history bears heavily on their shoulders. The Turin derby is therefore set to be an attritional affair, in which a low-scoring Juve win is the likeliest result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 46.71%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Juventus had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.13%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Juventus win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Juventus in this match.
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