We expect Udinese to return to winning ways on Friday, although only by the tightest of margins.
Despite losing half of their games so far this season, Lecce have rarely been thrashed, with only eight teams in the division boasting a superior defensive record than them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 46.44%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 27.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
