SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 44%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bologna | Draw | Lecce |
44% ( 3.05) | 26.29% ( -0.17) | 29.71% ( -2.88) |
| Both teams to score 51.39% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.04% ( -0.3) | 52.96% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.44% ( -0.25) | 74.56% ( 0.25) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.06% ( 1.41) | 23.94% ( -1.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.84% ( 1.98) | 58.16% ( -1.98) |
| Lecce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.56% ( -2.16) | 32.43% ( 2.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.04% ( -2.51) | 68.96% ( 2.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bologna | Draw | Lecce |
| 1-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.57) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.71)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.31)3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.48)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.22)Other @ 2.72% Total : 44% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.13)Other @ 1% Total : 26.28% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.43) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( -0.48)0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.56)1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.34)Other @ 2.64% Total : 29.71% |
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