SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Alessandria had a probability of 30.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Alessandria win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alessandria | Draw | Perugia |
| 30.89% | 28.78% | 40.33% |
| Both teams to score 44.74% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.36% | 61.64% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.53% | 81.47% |
| Alessandria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.84% | 36.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.06% | 72.93% |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.07% | 29.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.96% | 66.03% |
| Score Analysis |
| Alessandria | Draw | Perugia |
| 1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 6.76% 2-0 @ 5.6% 3-1 @ 2.29% 3-0 @ 1.9% 3-2 @ 1.38% Other @ 1.95% Total : 30.88% | 1-1 @ 13.28% 0-0 @ 10.82% 2-2 @ 4.08% Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.78% | 0-1 @ 13.05% 1-2 @ 8.01% 0-2 @ 7.87% 1-3 @ 3.22% 0-3 @ 3.17% 2-3 @ 1.64% 1-4 @ 0.97% 0-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.45% Total : 40.33% |
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