Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Alessandria had a probability of 30.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Alessandria win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
