Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 36.85%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (11.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Perugia in this match.
