Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 55.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 19.82%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
