Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
