Having had to overcome an extra-time epic shortly before the first leg, while Monza prepared in peace, Brescia were always likely to be up against it at Stadio Rigamonti.
Their chance may now have passed, as Sunday's hosts are an ambitious outfit, driven to reach one final destination: Serie A.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 46.16%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
2.47) 
-0.07) 
