Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
