Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.24) 
-0.3) 
