Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Palermo had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Palermo win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
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