Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
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