Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 26.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.16) 
