Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Perugia win was 1-0 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
