Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.2) 
