Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Ternana had a probability of 20.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Ternana win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.07) 
