Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 15.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.26) 
