Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 48%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 26.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
0.34) 
-0.21) 
