Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 50.94%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.12) 
