Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 57.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.09) 
