Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.11) 
