Giampaolo is likely to come in and bring some organisation to his Sampdoria side, so with this being his first match back in charge, and with it being away from home, he will be determined not to lose it and could set up to be defensively stubborn.
As a result, and with these sides being evenly matched overall despite their differing form lately, we are predicting this to be a nervy affair that finishes in a draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match.
