Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 53.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Cosenza Calcio had a probability of 21.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Cosenza Calcio win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SPAL would win this match.
0.19) 
-0.08) 
