Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.15) 
