Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Como had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Como win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.63) 
