SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Genoa in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Genoa.
| Result | ||
| Genoa | Draw | SPAL |
46.15% ( -0.58) | 25.61% ( 0.18) | 28.24% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.03% ( -0.52) | 50.97% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.16% ( -0.46) | 72.84% ( 0.46) |
| Genoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.93% ( -0.48) | 22.07% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.58% ( -0.73) | 55.42% ( 0.73) |
| SPAL Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.5% ( 0.03) | 32.5% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.98% ( 0.03) | 69.02% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Genoa | Draw | SPAL |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.27% Total : 46.14% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.61% | 0-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.24% |
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