Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 51.71%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.01) 
