Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 47.17%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
0.25) 
-0.03) 
