Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 38.08%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (11.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sudtirol would win this match.
0.53) 
-0.61) 
