Stuttgart are set to host St Pauli in the Bundesliga at MHP Arena on Saturday in a match that could affect both the race for European football and the relegation battle.
The home side beat Heidenheim 3-1 on December 15 and are sixth in the division's Conference League qualification spot with 23 points after 14 matchweeks, while the visitors are fourth last in 15th place with 11 points and lost 2-1 against Werder Bremen on December 14.
Match preview
Die Roten were deserving victors when they played Heidenheim given they created six big chances and produced an xG total of 1.6, almost double that of their opponents.
Sebastian Hoeness singled out striker Nick Woltemade after the match for praise, saying: "He was clearly the man of the match and was involved in all three goals. He was also involved in many other situations that helped us. He also took the pressure off us when he held balls or was fouled."
Hoeness's side finished second in 2023-24 but began their current league campaign poorly, winning just twice in their first seven Bundesliga fixtures, drawing three and losing two in that time.
However, Stuttgart appear to have rediscovered last season's form considering they have triumphed in all of their past four matches and have won three of their last four league games.
In their six most recent outings, Stuttgart have netted 17 goals, though they only kept one clean sheet in those fixtures while conceding on 11 occasions.
The hosts have won all of their last three home matches, and despite losing the previous two at MHP Arena, they emerged victorious in 14 and drew six of their prior 20 fixtures at home.
Opponents St Pauli are just one point ahead of 16th-placed Heidenheim, who occupy the division's relegation playoff spot, though they are six points clear of the automatic relegation zone in more positive news.
Kiezkicker failed to create a single big chance against Werder Bremen, and proved vulnerable defensively despite controlling the first half and attempting 15 shots compared to Werder Bremen's eight.
Manager Alexander Blessin's team have scored 11 times and conceded 19 goals in the Bundesliga, and these records make them the league's joint worst offensive and joint fourth best defensive club in the top flight.
Blessin's side are in poor form considering they have achieved victory just once in their five most recent games, losing four times.
The visitors' record on the road is equally alarming given they have succumbed to defeat in six of their nine fixtures away from home.
Team News
Stuttgart head into Saturday's match with a largely healthy squad, though defender Dan-Axel Zagadou is not scheduled to return until February 2025, while striker El Bilal Toure could miss out until late March next year due to a broken ankle.
Centre-backs Anthony Rouault and Julian Chabot are likely to form a partnership in a back four alongside full-backs Josha Vagnoman and Maximilian Mittelstadt.
In the forward line, Woltemade is certain to start considering his exploits last time out, and he may be joined in a front two by Ermedin Demirovic.
Meanwhile, St Pauli have numerous injury absentees, including goalkeepers Sascha Burchert, Ben Alexander Volland and Soren Ahlers, so perhaps Nikola Vasilj will be chosen in goal.
Midfielders Connor Metcalfe, Robert Wagner and Scott Banks will miss out, so expect Jackson Irvine and Carlo Boukhalfa to feature in a double pivot.
Forwards Simon Zoller and Elias Saad are unavailable, and their absences could lead Blessin to start Morgan Guilavogui, Johannes Eggestein and Oladapo Afolayan in attack.
Defenders Hauke Wahl, Finley Stevens and David Nemeth may start in a back three considering Karol Mets, Adam Dzwigala and Eric Smith are injured.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Vagnoman, Rouault, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Millot, Karazor, Stiller, Fuhrich; Woltemade, Demirovic
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Wahl, Stevens, Nemeth; Saliakas, Irvine, Boukhalfa, Treu; Afolayan, Eggestein, Guilavogui
We say: Stuttgart 3-1 St Pauli
St Pauli could have opportunities in the final third given the hosts have struggled to keep clean sheets in recent weeks.
However, Stuttgart's strong home record and resurgence in the Bundesliga should mean they are considered strong favourites to take all three points on Saturday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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