Union Berlin are not likely to score more than once on Friday considering their poor offensive record, so Stuttgart should be confident of at least preventing the visitors from creating many chances.
However, the hosts have been poor defensively in recent weeks, and it would be surprising if they managed to keep a clean sheet.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 64.24%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 15.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
0.54) 
-0.27) 
