We said: Alanyaspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor
With Alanyaspor in a rut and Yeni Malatyaspor playing with freedom following their relegation, we do not expect a thrashing like the league table would suggest.
That being said, we do ultimately see the hosts outclassing their visitors with the need to keep the chasing pack at bay.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alanyaspor win with a probability of 63.62%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Yeni Malatyaspor had a probability of 16.58%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alanyaspor win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Yeni Malatyaspor win it was 1-2 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Alanyaspor in this match.