Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 48.14%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
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