SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 26.85% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Basel |
26.85% ( -0.4) | 24% ( 0.01) | 49.14% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 56.75% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.98% ( -0.32) | 45.02% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.62% ( -0.31) | 67.37% ( 0.31) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.55% ( -0.47) | 30.44% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.35% ( -0.56) | 66.65% ( 0.56) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.59% ( 0.03) | 18.41% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.43% ( 0.06) | 49.56% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 6.67% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.03% Total : 26.85% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24% | 1-2 @ 9.55% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.53% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.43% Total : 49.15% |
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