SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.22%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a FC Winterthur win it was 0-1 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | FC Winterthur |
54.22% ( -1.25) | 23.49% ( 0.47) | 22.3% ( 0.79) |
| Both teams to score 53.5% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53% ( -1.09) | 47% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.75% ( -1.02) | 69.25% ( 1.03) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.76% ( -0.84) | 17.24% ( 0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.45% ( -1.49) | 47.55% ( 1.5) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( 0.14) | 35.36% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( 0.14) | 72.12% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | FC Winterthur |
| 1-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.79% Total : 54.21% | 1-1 @ 11.14% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.28)2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.49% | 0-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.96% Total : 22.3% |
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