Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Winterthur win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Winterthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
0.02) 
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