Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 51.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Leixoes had a probability of 23.48%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Leixoes win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.13) 
