SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 35.3%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (12.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
35.3% ( -0.95) | 29.84% ( -0.1) | 34.86% ( 1.05) |
| Both teams to score 42.57% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.41% ( 0.35) | 64.58% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.4% ( 0.24) | 83.6% ( -0.24) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.4% ( -0.45) | 34.6% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.68% ( -0.48) | 71.32% ( 0.48) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( 0.91) | 34.9% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.36% ( 0.95) | 71.64% ( -0.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.81% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.8% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.3% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.07% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.83% | 0-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.2% Total : 34.86% |
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