SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.85%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
15.75% ( 0.13) | 20.53% ( 0.21) | 63.72% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 51.47% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.09% ( -0.66) | 43.91% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.7% ( -0.65) | 66.3% ( 0.65) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.23% ( -0.23) | 40.77% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.65% ( -0.21) | 77.35% ( 0.21) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.9% ( -0.3) | 13.1% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.27% ( -0.62) | 39.73% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 15.75% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.01% Total : 20.53% | 0-2 @ 11.03% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.19)1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0)0-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.71% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 3.8% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 3.41% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.54% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 1.39% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.08% Total : 63.71% |
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