Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Penafiel had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Penafiel win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.63) 
0.02) 
