Benfica are currently firing on all cylinders and head into the weekend on a run of nine consecutive victories in all competitions. As Aguias take on a struggling Penafiel side who have failed to win six of their last seven outings and we predict they will cruise to a comfortable victory on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 88.2%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 3.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 4-0 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.04%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (1.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
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